For current voucher holders, implementation of the Proposed Rule without any changes would result in changes to their payment standards. Based on NHLP estimates, the monthly payment standard for the average current voucher holder in the Gary, IN HUD Metro FMR Area would increase by $95.06 for zero bedroom units, increase by $18.71 for one bedroom units, decrease by $22.20 for two bedroom units, decrease by $31.47 for three bedroom units, and increase by $80.69 for four bedroom units. Overall, an estimated 2,000 voucher holders and their families, or approximately 62% of all voucher holders in the area, would experience a decrease in payment standards under the Proposed Rule, potentially resulting in displacement or a higher cost burden for these tenants. Note that NHLP's estimate of the number of voucher holders in the area differs from HUD's count by 1% and should be treated as an estimate, not an official or exact count.
Notably, looking at zip codes without accounting for voucher holder concentration leads to different conclusions about the effect of the Proposed Rule. On average, monthly payment standards for zip codes in the Gary, IN HUD Metro FMR Area would increase by $121.07 for zero bedroom units, increase by $48.89 for one bedroom units, increase by $13.18 for two bedroom units, increase by $14.79 for three bedroom units, and increase by $135.04 for four bedroom units. Looking at both sets of averages together, it is clear that voucher holders are disproportionately clustered in zip codes that would experience a decrease in payment standards under the Proposed Rule.
There are three important qualifications to NHLP's data and analysis. First, all analysis assumes payment standards at 100% FMR. PHAs generally set payment standards between 90% and 110% FMR. Second, the voucher data is inexact. HUD does not publish voucher counts by zip code, so, in order to arrive at the number of vouchers for each zip code, NHLP combined HUD's Census tract-level voucher data (available here) with HUD's crosswalk of zip codes and Census tracts (available here). Following HUD's methodology, NHLP then divided the number of vouchers in a tract by the number of zip codes the tract is in to arrive at an estimate of vouchers per zip code. For zip codes that fell in more than one MSA, NHLP divided the number of vouchers by the number of MSAs that the zip code fell in. Despite steps taken to ensure accuracy, the final estimate of vouchers for the area, as indicated above, differs from the number that HUD released as part of the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (data available here). Therefore, the voucher counts should be treated as estimates and not as official or exact voucher counts. Finally, to determine the number of voucher holders that will experience a decrease in their payment standards, NHLP assumed that all voucher holders live in two bedroom units. A different assumption would lead to slight changes in the estimated number of residents experiencing a decrease.
For all the SAFMR payment standards for the area, please see NHLP's analysis here. To see estimated voucher information, data on bedroom size, and a comparison between FMRs and SAFMRs for a particular zip code, click on any shaded area on the map below. Please note that the map may take up to two minutes to load. If you are still unable to access the map, reload the page.
*Note that the map may not include all zip codes in an area. Zip codes that only encompasses one building or contain no residential addresses are especially likely to be excluded.
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